What Defines A Nationals Level Team?
by Matt Mackey
Based on a rather unscientific method of "playing with data in excel and eyeballing differences," the following is what I've got for main difference-makers in making nationals (probably as good a cutoff as any for "high-level college ultimate team" as any—your few elite also-rans get watered down with the large number of less-elite others).
Perhaps more than anything else, elite teams have set strategies for moving the disc off of the pull and especially off of a turnover. They also are generally very keen to run transition zones, which suggests a level of defensive sophistication that can't really be borne out fully with the data we have right now.
The one catch—these factors also correlate pretty strongly with having a coach. It's hard to authoritatively state "this is what makes the difference for nationals-caliber teams;" it's equally likely, in my mind, that these things could merely be products of a coach's need to impose their own strategies on their teams without necessarily having a big on-field impact. This begs for more authoritative analysis. The coaching factor has potentially the broadest (and most fascinating) impact on team success given all that it entails.
Teams that make nationals also seem to emphasize handler D and poaching/help D more than your non-nationals teams, which agrees with what I've learned and seen in 4 years of college ultimate with a team perennially on the elite bubble. Handler D in particular is a big game-changer that, in my opinion, remains underrated, and would be a great topic for the Huddle to explore.
Finally, it's worth noting that fully half of the qualifying teams at some point practiced specifically to prepare for another team. It's not as notable as the other factors mentioned above (which apply to over 80% of the nationals-making teams surveyed), but might be worth exploring too.
About the data: My set was pretty messy. I list percentages of teams/players as the differences get larger, but they're likely not fully accurate—merely an aid to understanding the magnitude of difference in what the proportions are. There's also a bit of a disparity in sample sizes between groups, making it harder to claim significance without doing more rigorous analysis.
I'd recommend following up on this data by looking at differences divided along within the open/women's divisions separately; sample size becomes an even bigger issue there, but I suspect some differences might materialize there that didn't here.
Teams that made Nationals last year, compared with teams that didn't:
Are slightly more likely (5-10%) to:
- have high school experience
- have 'great' throwers
- not have 'poor' throwers
- practice throwing , catching, hucking, skying at every practice
- practice dumping, 1-on-1 downfield D every week
- rely on breaking the mark to score
Are somewhat more likely (10-15% more) to:
- have 'great' athletes
- practice hucking, skying, marking, D against specific offenses, every week
- practice 1-on-1 downfield D at every practice
- practice zone D once a month
- not rely on hucking to score
- not rely on the open-side in cut to score
- force backhand
- switch between forces
- switch between forces in a given point
- force middle
Are more likely (15-20%) to:
- practice breaking the mark at every practice (62% vs 43%)
- taken in aggregate, practice hucking (96% vs 80%) and skying (77% vs 61%) at least once a week
- run both horizontal and vertical offenses (73% vs 61%)
- have a 2-dump setup (69% vs 54%) (note that non-natties teams more often run a 3+ dump set (14% vs 4%))
- have a strategy for moving the disc off-line (96% vs 78%)
- run a 1-3-3 (57% vs 40%)
- run other zone sets (81% vs 63%)
- have a coach (73% vs 57%)
- be attending 7 or more tournaments (50% vs 30%) (note that this becomes much less significant when you include "5-6 tournaments"—less than 5% difference in that case)
Are much more likely (>20%) to:
- taken in aggregate, practice handler D at least once a week (81% vs 59%)
- taken in aggregate, practice in prep for a specific team at least once a month (50% vs 29%)
- in aggregate, practice poaching/help D at least once a month (81% vs 61%)
- run set plays off of a turnover (81% vs 49%)
- run set plays off the pull (88% vs 65%)
- force straight-up (96% vs 71%)
- run a transition zone (92% vs 68%)
Logistics:
- Natties teams receive on average $750 more than non-natties teams. There could easily be some large values biasing that though; begs a deeper analysis.
- Natties teams practice and condition for about an hour longer than non-natties teams.
Roster-wise:
- They have a (relatively) large D line (43% vs 20%)
- They have fewer players play both ways (44% vs 74%)
- They have more High School experienced players (28% vs 18% of roster)
No (apparent) differences of note:
- O line size (in terms of percentage)
- Zone D practice rate
- generally speaking, distribution of years of experience (1-5yrs)
Factors that seem to correlate with coaching (again, from eyeballing—analysis of significance may state otherwise):
- Tendency to have more players on O-line
- More players rated as "great" athletes
- Fewer players rated as "okay" athletes
- Slightly more players rated as having "great" throws
- About an additional half-hour of practice time
- Running a transition zone
- Not running a 1-3-3
Slightly more likely (5-10%) to:
- run both vert and ho stack offenses
- practice in prep for a specific team (once/month or once/season)
- scrimmage less often (once/week vs once/practice)
- practice 1-on-1 downfield D
- practice marking (once/practice)
- practice skying (once/practice)
- practice hucking (once/practice)
- practice catching (once/practice)
- practice throwing (once/practice)
Somewhat more likely (10-15% more) to:
- run a straight-up force
- switch the force mid-point
- force backhand
- have a plan for getting the disc off-line
- not rely on the open-side in cut for scoring
- practice poaching/switching on D (once/month)
- practice D against specific offenses (once/week)
Much more likely (>15%) to:
- run a force middle
- have a set O play off a turnover
- have a set O play off the pull
- practice dumping (once/practice)
- practice breaking the mark (once/practice)
No (apparent) difference:
- handler D
- zone D (well, there is, but some coached teams do it more once/practice and some do it more once/month, so it's kind of a wash)
Matt Mackey is author of one of the best Ultimate blogs there is and is a graduate of and advisor for Dartmouth. He now lives in Japan.