Read about Ultimate Peace 2010 and WFDF Rules on the weblog.

The Huddle

What Defines A Nationals Level Team?

by Matt Mackey

Based on a rather unscientific method of "playing with data in excel and eyeballing differences," the following is what I've got for main difference-makers in making nationals (probably as good a cutoff as any for "high-level college ultimate team" as any—your few elite also-rans get watered down with the large number of less-elite others).

Perhaps more than anything else, elite teams have set strategies for moving the disc off of the pull and especially off of a turnover. They also are generally very keen to run transition zones, which suggests a level of defensive sophistication that can't really be borne out fully with the data we have right now.

The one catch—these factors also correlate pretty strongly with having a coach. It's hard to authoritatively state "this is what makes the difference for nationals-caliber teams;" it's equally likely, in my mind, that these things could merely be products of a coach's need to impose their own strategies on their teams without necessarily having a big on-field impact. This begs for more authoritative analysis. The coaching factor has potentially the broadest (and most fascinating) impact on team success given all that it entails.

Teams that make nationals also seem to emphasize handler D and poaching/help D more than your non-nationals teams, which agrees with what I've learned and seen in 4 years of college ultimate with a team perennially on the elite bubble. Handler D in particular is a big game-changer that, in my opinion, remains underrated, and would be a great topic for the Huddle to explore.

Finally, it's worth noting that fully half of the qualifying teams at some point practiced specifically to prepare for another team. It's not as notable as the other factors mentioned above (which apply to over 80% of the nationals-making teams surveyed), but might be worth exploring too.

About the data: My set was pretty messy. I list percentages of teams/players as the differences get larger, but they're likely not fully accurate—merely an aid to understanding the magnitude of difference in what the proportions are. There's also a bit of a disparity in sample sizes between groups, making it harder to claim significance without doing more rigorous analysis.

I'd recommend following up on this data by looking at differences divided along within the open/women's divisions separately; sample size becomes an even bigger issue there, but I suspect some differences might materialize there that didn't here.

Teams that made Nationals last year, compared with teams that didn't:

Are slightly more likely (5-10%) to:

Are somewhat more likely (10-15% more) to:

Are more likely (15-20%) to:

Are much more likely (>20%) to:

Logistics:

Roster-wise:

No (apparent) differences of note:

Factors that seem to correlate with coaching (again, from eyeballing—analysis of significance may state otherwise):

Slightly more likely (5-10%) to:

Somewhat more likely (10-15% more) to:

Much more likely (>15%) to:

No (apparent) difference:

Matt Mackey is author of one of the best Ultimate blogs there is and is a graduate of and advisor for Dartmouth. He now lives in Japan.